Near-term forecasting of infectious disease incidence and consequent demand for acute healthcare services can support capacity planning and public health responses. Despite well-developed scenario modelling to support the Covid-19 response, Aotearoa New Zealand lacks advanced infectious disease forecasting capacity. We develop a model using Aotearoa New Zealand9s unique Covid-19 data streams to predict reported Covid-19 cases, hospital admissions and hospital occupancy. The method combines a semi-mechanistic model for disease transmission to predict cases with Gaussian process regression models to predict the fraction of reported cases that will require hospital treatment. We evaluate forecast performance against out-of-sample data over the period from 2 October 2022 to 23 July 2023. Our results show that forecast performance is reasonably good over a 1-3 week time horizon, although generally deteriorates as the time horizon is lengthened. The model has been operationalised to provide weekly national and regional forecasts in real-time. This study is an important step towards development of more sophisticated situational awareness and infectious disease forecasting tools in Aotearoa New Zealand.
Vitamin D insufficiency has been linked to multiple conditions including bone disease, respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer. Observational studies indicate lower healthcare costs and healthcare utilization with sufficient vitamin D levels. The secondary aims of our previously published pragmatic clinical trial of vitamin D3 supplementation were comparisons of healthcare costs and healthcare utilization. Com-parisons were made between the vitamin D3 at 5000 IU supplementation group and a non-supplemented control group. Costs of care between the groups were not statistically different. Vitamin D3 supplementation reduced healthcare utilization in four major cate-gories: hospitalizations for any reason (rate difference: -0.19 per 1000 person-days, 95%-CI: -0.21 to -0.17 per 1000 person-days, p < 0.0001); ICU admissions for any reason (rate dif-ference: -0.06 per 1000 person-days, 95%-CI: -0.08 to -0.04 per 1000 person-days, p < 0.0001); emergency room visits for any reason (rate difference: -0.26 per 1000 person-days, 95%-CI: -0.46 to -0.05 per 1000 person-days, p = 0.0131; and hospitalizations due to Covid-19 (rate difference: -8.47X10-3 per 1000 person-days, 95%-CI: -0.02 to -1.05X10-3 per 1000 person-days, p = 0.0253). Appropriately powered studies of longer duration are rec-ommended for replication of these utilization findings and analysis of cost differences.
Patients with B-cell lymphomas have altered cellular components of vaccine responses due to the malignancies and therapies. The optimal timing of vaccine administration relative to chemotherapy and immunotherapy remains unknown. The SARS-CoV-2 vaccine campaign created a unique opportunity to gather insights into vaccine timing because patients were challenged with a novel antigen across multiple phases of lymphoma management. We studied retrospective and prospective cohorts of patients with lymphoma and CLL who received an mRNA-based vaccine and paired serologic response with treatment dates, clinical immune parameters, and deep immunophenotyping. Reduced serologic response was observed more frequently during active therapies but nonresponders were also identified within observation and post-treatment groups. Clinical immunologic profiling demonstrated that total IgA and IgM near the time of vaccination correlated with ability to coordinate vaccine response. In individuals treated with CART-19, high-parameter immunophenotyping demonstrated that nonresponse was associated with reduced participation in B cell clusters and clusters of T follicular helper cells required for vaccine response. Together these data suggest that predictors of vaccine responsiveness vary by disease and therapeutic group. Further studies of immune health during and after cancer therapies will allow clinicians to individualize the timing of vaccines and define immunologic vulnerabilities.
Post vaccine immunity following COVID-19 mRNA vaccination may be driven by extrinsic, or controllable and intrinsic, or inherent health factors. Thus, we investigated the effects of extrinsic and intrinsic on the peak antibody response following COVID-19 primary vaccination and on the trajectory of peak antibody magnitude and durability over time. Participants in a longitudinal cohort attended visits every 3 months for up to 2 years following enrollment. At baseline, participants provided information on their demographics, recreational behaviors, and comorbid health conditions which guided our model selection process. Blood samples were collected for serum processing and spike antibody testing at each visit. Cross-sectional and longitudinal models (linear-mixed effects models) were generated to assess the relationship between selected intrinsic and extrinsic health factors on peak antibody following vaccination and to determine the influence of these predictors on antibody over time. Following cross-sectional analysis, we observed higher peak antibody titers after primary vaccination in females, those who reported recreational drug use, younger age, and prior COVID-19 history. Following booster vaccination, females and Hispanics had higher peak titers after the 3rd and 4th doses, respectively. Longitudinal models demonstrated that Moderna mRNA-1273 recipients, females, and those previously vaccinated had increased peak titers over time. Moreover, drug users and half-dose Moderna mRNA-1273 recipients had higher peak antibody titers over time following the first booster, while no predictive factors significantly affected post-second booster antibody responses. Overall, both intrinsic and extrinsic health factors play a significant role in shaping humoral immunogenicity after initial vaccination and the first booster. The absence of predictive factors for second booster immunogenicity suggests a more robust and consistent immune response after the second booster vaccine administration.
Research ethics review committees (ERCs) worldwide faced daunting challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a need to balance rapid turnaround with rigorous evaluation of high-risk research protocols in the context of considerable uncertainty. This study explored the experiences and performance of ERCs during the pandemic. We conducted an anonymous, cross-sectional, global online survey of chairs (or their delegates) of ERCs who were involved in the review of COVID-19-related research protocols after March 2020. The survey ran from October 2022 to February 2023 and consisted of 50 items, with opportunities for open text responses. Two hundred and three participants [130 from high-income countries (HICs) and 73 from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)] completed our survey. Respondents came from diverse entities and organizations from 48 countries (19 HICs and 29 LMICs) in all World Health Organization regions. Responses show little of the increased global funding for COVID-19 research was allotted to the operation of ERCs. Few ERCs had pre-existing internal policies to address operation during public health emergencies, but almost half used existing guidelines. Most ERCs modified existing procedures or designed and implemented new ones but had not evaluated the success of these changes. Participants overwhelmingly endorsed permanently implementing several of them. Few ERCs added new members but non-member experts were consulted; quorum was generally achieved. Collaboration among ERCs was infrequent, but reviews conducted by external ERCs were recognized and validated. Review volume increased during the pandemic, with COVID-19-related studies being prioritized. Most protocol reviews were reported as taking less than three weeks. One-third of respondents reported external pressure on their ERCs from different stakeholders to approve or reject specific COVID-19-related protocols. ERC members faced significant challenges to keep their committees functioning during the pandemic. Our findings can inform ERC approaches towards future public health emergencies. To our knowledge, this is the first international, COVID-19-related study of its kind.
Wastewater-based epidemiology is experiencing exponential development. Despite undeniable advantages compared to patient-centered approaches (cost, anonymity, survey of large populations without bias, detection of asymptomatic infected peoples etc), major technical limitations persist. Among them is the low sensitivity of the current methods used for quantifying and sequencing viral genomes from wastewater. In situations of low viral circulation, during initial stages of viral emergences, or in countries experiencing heavy rains, the extremely low concentrations of viruses in wastewater may fall below the limit of detection of the current methods. The availability and cost of the commercial kits, as well as the requirement of expensive materials, can also present major blocks to the development of wastewater-based epidemiological survey, specifically in low-income countries. Thereby, highly sensitive, low cost and open-access methods are still needed to increase the predictability of the viral emergences, to survey low-circulating viruses and to allow wastewater-based surveillance. Here, we outline and characterize new protocols for concentrating, quantifying, monitoring, and sequencing SARS-CoV-2 from large volumes (500 mL-1L) of raw wastewater. Our nucleic acid extraction technique (the routine C: 5ml method) does not require sophisticated equipment such as automatons and is not reliant on commercial kits, making it readily available to a broader range of laboratories for routine epidemiological survey. Furthermore, we demonstrate the efficiency, the repeatability, and the high sensitivity of a new membrane-based concentration method (MBC: 500 mL method) for enveloped (SARS-CoV-2) and naked (FRNAPH GGII) viruses. We show that the MBC method allows the quantification and the monitoring of viruses in wastewater with a significantly improved sensitivity. In contexts of low viral circulation, we report quantifications of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater at concentrations below 100 genome copies per liter and as low as 40 genome copies per liter. In highly diluted samples collected in wastewater treatment plants of French Guiana, we confirmed the accuracy of the MBC method compared to the estimations done with the C method. Finally, we demonstrate that both the C and MBC methods are compatible with SARS-CoV-2 sequencing. We show that the quality of the sequence is correlated with the concentration of the extracted viral genome. Of note, the quality of the sequences obtained with some MBC processed wastewater was improved by dilutions or enzyme substitutions suggesting the presence of specific enzyme inhibitors in some wastewater. To the best of our knowledge, our MBC method is the first efficient, sensitive, repeatable, and up-scalable method characterized for SARS-CoV-2 quantification and sequencing from large volumes of wastewater.
Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic presents unique requirements for accessible, reliable testing, and many testing platforms and sampling techniques have been developed. However, not all test methods have been systematically compared to each other or a common gold standard, and the performance of tests developed in the early epidemic have not been consistently re-evaluated in the context of newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.
Methods: We conducted a repeated measures study with adult healthcare workers presenting for SARS-CoV-2 testing. Participants were tested using seven test modalities: PCR with samples from the nasopharynx, oropharynx, and saliva; and BinaxNOW and iHealth antigen–based rapid detection tests (AgRDT) sampling the oropharynx and the nares. Test sensitivity was compared using any positive PCR test as the gold standard.
Results: 325 individuals participated in the study. PCR tests were the most sensitive with saliva PCR at 0.957 ± 0.048, nasopharyngeal PCR at 0.877 ± 0.075, and oropharyngeal PCR at 0.849 ± 0.082. Standard nasal rapid antigen tests were less sensitive but roughly equivalent at 0.613 ± 0.110 for BinaxNOW brand and 0.627 ± 0.109 for iHealth. Oropharyngeal rapid antigen tests were the least sensitive with BinaxNOW and iHealth brands at 0.400 ± 0.111 and 0.311 ± 0.105 respectively.
Conclusion: PCR remains the most sensitive testing modality for COVID-19, with saliva PCR being significantly more sensitive than oropharyngeal PCR and equivalent to nasopharyngeal PCR. Saliva testing has patient comfort and financial benefits, making it a preferred testing modality. Nasal AgRDTs are less sensitive than PCR though more accessible and convenient.
Sleep quality is crucial to both mental and physical well-being. The COVID-19 pandemic, which has notably affected the population9s health worldwide, has been shown to deteriorate people9s sleep quality. Numerous studies have been conducted to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sleep efficiency, investigating their relationships using correlation based methods. These methods merely rely on learning spurious correlation rather than the causal relations among variables. Furthermore, they fail to pinpoint potential sources of bias and mediators and envision counterfactual scenarios, leading to a poor estimation. In this paper, we develop a Causal Machine Learning method, which encompasses causal discovery and causal inference components, to extract the causal relations between the COVID-19 pandemic (treatment variable) and sleep quality (outcome) and estimate the causal treatment effect, respectively. We conducted a wearable-based health monitoring study to collect data, including sleep quality, physical activity, and Heart Rate Variability (HRV) from college students before and after the COVID-19 lockdown in March 2020. Our causal discovery component generates a causal graph and pinpoints mediators in the causal model. We incorporate the strongly contributing mediators (i.e., HRV and physical activity) into our causal inference component to estimate the robust, accurate, and explainable causal effect of the pandemic on sleep quality. Finally, we validate our estimation via three refutation analysis techniques. Our experimental results indicate that the pandemic exacerbates college students9 sleep scores by 8%. Our validation results show significant p-values confirming our estimation.
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed, with few exceptions, a global deficiency in delivering systematic, data-driven guidance to protect citizens and coordinate vaccination programs. At the same time, medical histories are routinely recorded in most healthcare systems and are instantly available for risk assessment. Here, we demonstrate the utility of medical history in determining the risk for 1,883 diseases across clinical specialties and facilitating the rapid response to emerging health threats at the example of COVID-19. We developed a neural network to learn disease-specific risk states from routinely collected health records of 502,460 UK Biobank participants, demonstrating risk stratification for nearly all conditions, and validated this model on 229,830 individuals from the All of US cohort. When integrated into Cox Proportional Hazard Models, we observed significant discriminative improvements over basic demographic predictors for 1,774 (94.3%). After transferring the unmodified risk models to the All of US cohort, the discriminate improvements were replicated for 1,347 (89.8%) of 1,500 investigated endpoints, demonstrating model generalizability across healthcare systems and historically underrepresented groups. We then show that these risk states can be used to identify individuals vulnerable to severe COVID-19 and mortality. Our study demonstrates the currently underused potential of medical history to rapidly respond to emerging health threats by systematically estimating risk for thousands of diseases at once at minimal cost.
ACTIV-6: COVID-19 Study of Repurposed Medications - Arm G (Metformin) - Condition: Covid19
Interventions: Other: Placebo; Drug: Metformin
Sponsors: Susanna Naggie, MD; National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS); Vanderbilt University Medical Center
Recruiting
Psychosomatic, Physical Activity or Both for Post-covid19 Syndrom - Condition: Post-COVID-19 Syndrome
Interventions: Behavioral: Exercise Therapy; Behavioral: Psychotherapy
Sponsors: Hannover Medical School; Health Insurance Audi BKK; occupational health service Volkswagen AG; Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research
Not yet recruiting
SA55 Injection: a Potential Therapy for the Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 - Condition: COVID-19
Interventions: Drug: SA55 Injection; Other: Placebo for SA55 injection
Sponsor: Sinovac Life Sciences Co., Ltd.
Recruiting
A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy of HH-120 for the Treatment of COVID-19 - Condition: COVID-19
Interventions: Drug: HH-120; Drug: placebo
Sponsor: Huahui Health
Completed
A Study to Investigate the Prevention of COVID-19 withVYD222 in Adults With Immune Compromise and in Participants Aged 12 Years or Older Who Are at Risk of Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 - Conditions: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2
Interventions: Drug: VYD222; Drug: Normal saline
Sponsor: Invivyd, Inc.
Recruiting
Omicron BA.4/5-Delta COVID-19 Vaccine Phase I Clinical Trial - Condition: COVID-19
Interventions: Biological: Omicron BA.4/5-Delta strain recombinant novel coronavirus protein vaccine (CHO cells); Biological: Placebo
Sponsors: Anhui Zhifei Longcom Biologic Pharmacy Co., Ltd.; Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Not yet recruiting
Reducing COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Among Hispanic Parents - Conditions: Vaccine-Preventable Diseases; COVID-19 Pandemic; Health-Related Behavior; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice; Narration
Interventions: Behavioral: Baseline surveys; Behavioral: Digital Storytelling Intervention; Behavioral: Information Control Intervention
Sponsors: Arizona State University; Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD)
Not yet recruiting
Non-pharmacological and TCM-based Treatment for Long COVID Symptoms - Condition: Long Covid19
Intervention: Behavioral: Acupuncture and TCM-based lifestyle management
Sponsor: The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Not yet recruiting
Cell Therapy With Treg Cells Obtained From Thymic Tissue (thyTreg) to Control the Immune Hyperactivation Associated With COVID-19 (THYTECH2) - Condition: Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome
Interventions: Biological: Allogeneic thyTreg 5.000.000; Biological: Allogeneic thyTreg 10.000.000
Sponsors: Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañon; Instituto de Salud Carlos III
Recruiting
SA55 Novel Coronavirus Broad-spectrum Neutralizing Antibody Nasal Spray in Health People - Condition: COVID-19
Intervention: Drug: SA55 nasal spray
Sponsor: Sinovac Life Sciences Co., Ltd.
Recruiting
A Bioequivalence Trial of Fasting Single Oral STI-1558 Capsule in Healthy Chinese Subjects - Condition: COVID-19
Intervention: Drug: STI-1558
Sponsor: Zhejiang ACEA Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd.
Not yet recruiting
Mind Body Intervention for Long COVID - Conditions: Long COVID; Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19; COVID Long-Haul
Intervention: Behavioral: Mind Body Intervention #1
Sponsor: Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center
Not yet recruiting
Amantadine Therapy for Cognitive Impairment in Long COVID - Conditions: Long COVID; Post-COVID19 Condition; Post-Acute COVID19 Syndrome
Intervention: Drug: Amantadine
Sponsor: Ohio State University
Not yet recruiting
Impact of Covid-19 Aerosol Box On Intubation Success Rate - Condition: Intubation; Difficult or Failed
Interventions: Device: Intubation using aerosol box; Device: Intubation without aerosol box
Sponsor: Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre
Completed
Stellate Ganglion Block With Lidocaine for the Treatment of COVID-19-Induced Parosmia - Condition: Parosmia
Interventions: Procedure: Stellate Ganglion Block; Other: Placebo
Sponsor: Lawson Health Research Institute
Not yet recruiting
A promising nucleic acid therapy drug: DNAzymes and its delivery system - Based on the development of nucleic acid therapeutic drugs, DNAzymes obtained through in vitro selection technology in 1994 are gradually being sought. DNAzymes are single-stranded DNA molecules with catalytic function, which specifically cleave RNA under the action of metal ions. Various in vivo and in vitro models have recently demonstrated that DNAzymes can target related genes in cancer, cardiovascular disease, bacterial and viral infection, and central nervous system disease. Compared with…
Effect of Hepatic Impairment on the Pharmacokinetics of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir, the First Oral Protease Inhibitor for the Treatment of COVID-19 - Nirmatrelvir, a novel, potent, orally bioavailable SARS-CoV-2 main protease (M^(pro) ) inhibitor, coadministered with ritonavir for pharmacokinetic (PK) enhancement is licensed for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in individuals at increased risk of progression to severe disease. CYP3A4 is the primary metabolic enzyme responsible for nirmatrelvir metabolism; however, when CYP3A4 is inhibited by ritonavir, nirmatrelvir is primarily excreted, unchanged, in urine. Because of intended use…
Xuanbai Chengqi Decoction alleviates acute lung injury by inhibiting NLRP3 inflammasome - CONCLUSION: The therapeutic mechanism of XCD in ALI treatment may involve alleviating inflammatory responses in lung tissues by inhibiting the activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome-mediated pyroptosis in macrophages.
Transcriptomics-inferred dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 interactions with host epithelial cells - Virus-host interactions can reveal potentially effective and selective therapeutic targets for treating infection. Here, we performed an integrated analysis of the dynamics of virus replication and the host cell transcriptional response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection using human Caco-2 colon cancer cells as a model. Time-resolved RNA sequencing revealed that, upon infection, cells immediately transcriptionally activated genes associated with…
B cell responses to membrane-presented antigens require the function of the mechanosensitive cation channel Piezo1 - The demand for a vaccine for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) highlighted gaps in our understanding of the requirements for B cell responses to antigens, particularly to membrane-presented antigens, as occurs in vivo. We found that human B cell responses to membrane-presented antigens required the function of Piezo1, a plasma membrane mechanosensitive cation channel. Simply making contact with a glass probe induced calcium (Ca^(2+)) fluxes in B cells that were blocked by the Piezo1 inhibitor…
Host range, transmissibility and antigenicity of a pangolin coronavirus - The pathogenic and cross-species transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2-related coronaviruses (CoVs) remain poorly characterized. Here we recovered a wild-type pangolin (Pg) CoV GD strain including derivatives encoding reporter genes using reverse genetics. In primary human cells, PgCoV replicated efficiently but with reduced fitness and showed less efficient transmission via airborne route compared with SARS-CoV-2 in hamsters. PgCoV was potently inhibited by US Food and Drug Administration…
NETs induce persistent lung tissue damage via thromboinflammation without altering virus resolution in a mouse coronavirus model - BACKGROUND: During infection, neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) are associated with severity of pulmonary diseases such as acute respiratory disease syndrome. NETs induce subsequent immune responses, are directly cytotoxic to pulmonary cells and highly procoagulant. Anticoagulation treatment was shown to reduce in-hospital mortality, indicating thromboinflammatory complications. However, little data is available on the involvement of NETs in secondary events after virus clearance, which can…
Computational analysis of the interactions between Ebselen and derivatives with the active site of the main protease from SARS-CoV-2 - The main protease (M^(pro)) of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is a key target for developing antiviral drugs. Ebselen (EbSe) is a selenium-containing compound that has been shown to inhibit Mpro in vitro by forming a covalent bond with the cysteine (Cys) residue in the active site of the enzyme. However, EbSe can also bind to other proteins, like albumin, and low molecular weight compounds that have free thiol groups, such as Cys and glutathione (GSH), which may affect its availability and…
Pharmacological inhibition of bromodomain and extra-terminal proteins induces an NRF-2-mediated antiviral state that is subverted by SARS-CoV-2 infection - Inhibitors of bromodomain and extra-terminal proteins (iBETs), including JQ-1, have been suggested as potential prophylactics against SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, molecular mechanisms underlying JQ-1-mediated antiviral activity and its susceptibility to viral subversion remain incompletely understood. Pretreatment of cells with iBETs inhibited infection by SARS-CoV-2 variants and SARS-CoV, but not MERS-CoV. The antiviral activity manifested itself by reduced reporter expression of recombinant…
Computational study on the mechanisms of inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 Mpro by aldehyde warheads based on DFT - SARS-CoV-2 main protease, M^(pro), plays a crucial role in the virus replication cycle, making it an important target for antiviral research. In this study, a simplified model obtained through truncation is used to explore the reaction mechanism of aldehyde warhead compounds inhibiting M^(pro) at the level of density functional theory. According to the calculation results, proton transfer (P_T)-nucleophilic attack (N_A) is the rate-determining step in the entire reaction pathway. The water…
Heat shock protein 90 inhibition in the endothelium - No abstract
Determinants of de novo B cell responses to drifted epitopes in post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infections - Vaccine-induced immunity may impact subsequent de novo responses to drifted epitopes in SARS-CoV-2 variants, but this has been difficult to quantify due to the challenges in recruiting unvaccinated control groups whose first exposure to SARS-CoV-2 is a primary infection. Through local, statewide, and national SARS-CoV-2 testing programs, we were able to recruit cohorts of individuals who had recovered from either primary or post-vaccination infections by either the Delta or Omicron BA.1…
Recurrent Viral Capture of Cellular Phosphodiesterases that Antagonize OAS-RNase L - Phosphodiesterases (PDEs) encoded by viruses are putatively acquired by horizontal transfer of cellular PDE ancestor genes. Viral PDEs inhibit the OAS-RNase L antiviral pathway, a key effector component of the innate immune response. Although the function of these proteins is well-characterized, the origins of these gene acquisitions is less clear. Phylogenetic analysis revealed at least five independent PDE acquisition events by ancestral viruses. We found evidence that PDE-encoding genes were…
Complete substitution with modified nucleotides suppresses the early interferon response and increases the potency of self-amplifying RNA - Self-amplifying RNA (saRNA) will revolutionize vaccines and in situ therapeutics by enabling protein expression for longer duration at lower doses. However, a major barrier to saRNA efficacy is the potent early interferon response triggered upon cellular entry, resulting in saRNA degradation and translational inhibition. Substitution of mRNA with modified nucleotides (modNTPs), such as N1-methylpseudouridine (N1mΨ), reduce the interferon response and enhance expression levels. Multiple attempts…
Regulation of human interferon signaling by transposon exonization - Innate immune signaling is essential for clearing pathogens and damaged cells, and must be tightly regulated to avoid excessive inflammation or autoimmunity. Here, we found that the alternative splicing of exons derived from transposable elements is a key mechanism controlling immune signaling in human cells. By analyzing long-read transcriptome datasets, we identified numerous transposon exonization events predicted to generate functional protein variants of immune genes, including the type I…